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5 ways to approach goal-setting. Only one is worth a damn

Sunset behind some wispy clouds. It’s a view of some mountains across a body of water.
Photo by Brian Kerr.

Better to have an impossible goal than one you meet-&-exceed always.

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Podcast episode 0038: 5 ways to approach goal-setting
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A few games people play when it’s time to set goals:

Game #1

Set easy goals that are super attainable within the limits of current behavior. In this game, every goal is always met and nothing ever changes.

Game #2

Set goals that are more ambitious, but are less likely to be met. Real progress can be “hidden” behind partial progress towards unmet goals. But that is OK so long as everyone is playing the same game.

Game #3

Set goals at the theoretical limit. Error should be 0%. No one should be harmed. Everyone must be free.

Game #4

People loiter about, trying to figure out what kind of goal one is meant to set from various context clues, possibly inscrutable or obscured. Then, they play the appropriate game from the list above. Whatever you do, don’t guess wrong! Do what everybody else does, but a little more, but not too much!

Discussion

Of these, game #4 is the one I see played most frequently.

But as far as I’m concerned, game #3—setting goals at the theoretical limit—is the only one worth playing. Why? Because I never want errors to be OK. No one should be harmed. I’m in this for the liberation of all beings.

Cue the voice from the back of the room. Who are we kidding, it comes from the front of the room. This voice is heard to proclaim: “That’s not realistic!”

So yes, as a pragmatic concern, a lot of times people do want to see tidy little goals attained relentlessly, quarter after quarter. When I find myself in that scenario, I’ll play a new game:

Game #5

Near and far—Set a goal at the theoretical limit, describing the world we should have. Then, set a target that would inch the system’s performance toward the theoretical limit. This target is what we’ll commit to going after right now.

Three benefits of this game:

  • First, it creates space for small, incremental achievement. It is the zone of daily kaizen, of ongoing practice, and of continuous improvement.
  • Second, it allows for huge, transformational shifts—so long as people demonstrate improvements that move things closer to the goal, and there is a supportive management framework.
  • And third, it brings trade-offs into view.

Trade-offs revealed

Suppose we want a particular error rate to be 0%, and it’s at 50% right now. Half of the time, we do a thing and something screws up.

It’s likely that we can find small, reversible changes that brings that error rate down from 50%. Just ask the people who do it every day, they can tell you what to fix. Listen to them, do what they suggest. This is where a lot of projects are.

Now suppose that things have become better, but still not good enough. The error rate is now 5%. One out of twenty times, something screws up. We are in the zone where not everything we try will actually prevent errors. Or we might identify things that bring the error rate down further, but are not “worth it”—and there, is where the discussion happens:

  • What is acceptable harm, according to the people who sign the checks? At some point further improvements will be revealed to not be “worth it.”
  • What amount of pain, damage, loss, is an organization willing to actively produce in its regular workings?

Play this game, set goals at the theoretical limit, and eventually you’ll find out what the organization and its toleration really is.

August 1, 2024: Edited for length.

A lousy time to be a good idea

A lousy time to be a good idea
Photo by Brian Kerr.

In which “we send our hypotheses ahead, an expendable army, and watch them fall.”

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Podcast episode 0040: A lousy time to be a good idea
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In 1992, Oxford English prof Andrew Nuttall wrote the following:

The human capacity to think provisionally, to do thought experiments, to form hypotheses, to imagine what may happen before it happens, is fundamental to our nature and to our spectacular biological success ... The cleverest thing Sir Karl Popper ever said was his remark that our hypotheses ‘die in our stead’. The human race has found a way, if not to abolish, then to defer and diminish the Darwinian treadmill of death. We send our hypotheses ahead, an expendable army, and watch them fall.

That’s the tidiest explanation I’ve seen of our infinite appetites for catastrophe in media and in the imagination.

There’s much to gain from the activity of worrying about responses to some imagined, awful event. Mental rehearsal prepares us. We imagine. We plan. We ruminate. And as the expendable armies fall, over and over, the mind is cluttered. All this automatically, unwillingly, exhaustively.

We might also stop and turn the armies back and inhabit the silence.

(But that’s for another day.)

This is hard

  1. We’re born experts at doing thought experiments automatically, intuitively, and individually.
  2. But we’re terrible at doing thought experiments deliberately, or being able to speak or write about them.
  3. Even worse, we believe we’re equally great at both kinds of thinking.

The bad news

Think of the containers we’re meant to pour our great ideas into:

  • Suggestion boxes where ideas go not merely to die but to be forgotten “even by God.”
  • Big-design-up-front schemes that admit only a single hypothesis. Hope you picked the right idea at the outset of that multiyear effort.
  • Asinine standards for projects like ‘6x return on investment’, which serve only to preclude experimentation and prohibit critical thinking.
  • Initiatives where everyone is discouraged by an early failure and gives up, with the cry of: “we tried that and it didn’t work!”

These containers are bad, and you can find them everywhere.

The good news

The good news is: there are better ways of working and deciding, together.

  • Instead of suggestion boxes, create listening systems.
  • Do set-based design and allow for new trade-offs and discoveries without blowing the budget.
  • Validate ideas through rigorous PDSA, with small, reversible changes.
  • Celebrate failure as the thing one can learn from.

All those continuous improvement methods, all the great facilitation approaches, the techniques for self-organization? That’s what they’re for. They’re here, they’re tested, and they’re effective—and they are not easy.

From where I sit, this is the job. Let’s get to it.

October 7, 2024: Edited for length.