First way: try out guesses with small, reversible tests
Try out changes on a small scale—involving a few people for a short period of time—and in a way that’s easy to bail on.
Things tried out this way tend to be crappy or prototype-y. Good:
- Use a piece of paper instead of a fancy app.
- Make a spreadsheet instead of a report.
- Draw a table and figures on the wall instead of a spreadsheet.
- Do it manually today. Automate later.
Small: you need only enough work to figure out if your guess was any good. Don’t dump resources or spend time rushing towards dead ends.
Reversible: work this way to take the sting out of failure. Idea didn’t work? Stop and try the next one.
Test: once you can point to an initial success, gather resources and proceed with something more elaborate.
Second way: a logbook of guesses
Once you start testing your guesses, you’ll find that you make a lot of guesses, and run a lot of little tests. So keep a log. Write down:
- Your guess,
- What you thought might happen, and
- What actually happened.
- Was your test bigger or smaller than it needed to be?
Practice this and your guesses will improve over time.
Don’t take my word for it—try it in a small, reversible way, and see.